Renfrew Report
2025 Annual Renfrew Report for Colleagues and Clients
Strategic Analysis and 2026 Forecast for Puget Sound
Prepared By: Arron Renfrew, Asset Manager Renfrew Team | AUM Real Estate Seattle
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Executive Summary
The 2025 housing market in the Central Puget Sound navigated a landscape defined by elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices
. Despite these challenges, the market showed signs of shifting toward more balanced conditions as inventory levels increased and price appreciation stabilized
. As your Asset Manager, I have compiled this report to provide you with a detailed breakdown of the year's performance and our expectations for 2026.
I. Key Performance Indicators: 2025 at a Glance
The regional market demonstrated resilience with the Median Sales Price rising 0.7% to $724,950
. This stability was consistent across property types, with both residential homes and condominiums seeing a 0.7% increase in median value
.
• Sales Activity: Pending sales ended the year at 46,400 (a 1.4% decrease), and closed sales totaled 46,160 (a 2.1% decrease)
.
• Inventory Growth: One of the most significant changes was the 20.7% increase in homes available for sale, ending the year with 6,432 active listings
.
• Months Supply: The months supply of inventory reached 1.7, up from 1.4 in 2024, providing buyers with more options and reducing the "sense of urgency"
.
• Pricing Success: Sellers received, on average, 99.9% of their list price
.
II. Regional Market Variations
Performance across our core counties varied, highlighting the importance of localized data:
• King County: Remains the regional price leader with a median sales price of $865,000 (+0.6%) and saw the highest inventory growth at 25.2%
.
• Kitsap County: Recorded the highest price appreciation in the region at 4.5%, with a median price of $575,000
.
• Pierce County: Maintained steady volume (0.0% change in closed sales) with a 2.0% price increase
.
• Snohomish County: Saw a marginal price dip of 0.2%, ending at a median of $745,500
.
III. Sector Analysis: Luxury and Demographics
• The Luxury Market: Homes priced at $1,000,000 or more were a bright spot, with sales increasing by 1.9%
.
• Property Size: Properties with 4 bedrooms or more were highly competitive, with sellers receiving an average of 100.3% of their list price
.
• Buyer Demographics: National trends impacted our local market, as first-time buyers accounted for only 21% of purchases, and the typical age of a first-time buyer reached a record high of 40
.
IV. 2026 Market Forecast: Stabilization and Recovery
Looking ahead to 2026, the Renfrew Team anticipates a year of gradual improvement:
1. Mortgage Rates: Rates are expected to remain in the 6% range, supporting incremental gains in affordability
.
2. Sales Volume: As inventory continues to build, sales volume is projected to increase
.
3. Price Trends: Economists anticipate modest increases in home prices, which will likely stay well below the rapid appreciation seen in previous years
.
4. Market Dynamics: While affordability and a decade-long supply shortfall remain hurdles, the market is moving toward a state of stabilization and recovery
.
Arron Renfrew Asset Manager, Renfrew Team AUM Real Estate Seattle, Washington
